Blackjack - What Are the Odds?
By Tom McBroom
It goes without saying but we'll
say it anyway: the odds are always in favor of the house. How else do you
think they can create billion dollar mega-casinos in Las Vegas? The Blackjack
rules are carefully structured to ensure a house edge.
But just how heavily are the Blackjack
odds weighed in favor of the house? If you're a smart player, not as great
as you might think - and certainly not insurmountable. Let's start with
some basic facts about Blackjack odds with the most common Blackjack rules.
The house's advantage - also known
as the house edge - comes from the fact that the dealer's hand is played
last. All players that bust (go over 21) lose immediately. Then, the dealer
plays its hand and if the dealer busts, players that don't bust are paid.
The casino makes its profit from the fact that players who bust lose immediately,
even if the dealer subsequently busts. Regardless of how favorable the
Blackjack rules might be in a particular casino, this one aspect always
gives the house an edge.
If you, the player, use the same
strategy as the dealer, standing on 17 or higher and hitting on 16 and
less, you will bust approximately 29% of the time and the dealer will bust
29% of the time. This would seemingly make the odds even.
Ah, but remember: Blackjack rules
say that the dealer wins the bets of all players that bust, even if the
dealer busts. This puts the house's edge against you at about 8% or so.
However, since you are paid three for two when you get a blackjack dealt
to you, so this reduces the house edge down to just under 6%.
If you follow all the Blackjack rules
and play perfect basic strategy the house edge is reduced to about .5%
in game with favorable rules. By favorable rules, we mean the following
rules, which you are only likely to find in a 6 deck game:
* Dealer stands on all 17s
* Double down on any first two cards
* Double down after splitting pairs
* Natural pays the proper 3 for 2 odds
Many games have subtle variations
of these rules, some of which help the player and others which hurt the
player. Taking the above rules as the baseline, here are the common variations
you will find and how each one affects the house edge. Positive values
add to the house edge and negative values decrease the house edge.
Eight decks: +.02%
Natural pays 6 to 5: +1.45%
Dealer hits soft 17: +.20%
Double down on 9-11 only: +.09%
Double down on 10 or 11 only: +.22%
No double after splitting pairs: +.13%
Double down on any number of cards: -.21%
Resplitting of Aces: -.06%
Of course, your goal is to avoid
the unfavorable variants (one which add to the casino's edge), such as:
Naturals pay 6 to 5, or Dealer hits soft 17. To calculate the edge against
you in any blackjack game, simply take the baseline edge of .5% and add
or subtract the values of the variants.
For example, assume you find a 6
deck game in which the Dealer hits a soft 17 and you can only double down
on a two card count of 10 or 11. This game has a house edge of: .50% (baseline)
plus .20% (for dealer hits soft 17) plus .22% (for double down on 10 or
11 only), for a total house edge agains you of .92%.
Your job is to look for those games
with rules that give you the best odds. Good luck, gamble responsibly and
always remember that it's just a game - so have fun!
Tom is the webmaster for http://www.blackjack-for-everyone.com,
which is a website dedicated to the beginning all the way up to serious
recreational player.
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com
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