Bad Bets - Why Do We Make Them?
By Brian Osborne
Bad bets attract
the equivalent of billions of dollars in wagers from millions of people
around the world each week.
Most professional
gamblers look at the promoter's advantage over the player to determine
if a specific bet is a bad bet. If the promoter has an advantage of 3 percent
or more, it is considered a bad bet.
Every day millions
of people buy lottery tickets without the slightest consideration of the
promoter's advantage. Between the promoter and the Government as much as
50 percent is removed from the prize pool either before or partly before
for overheads and after the draw as tax. If that is not bad enough, the
player's chances of winning a prize of any description are thousands to
one against and the odds of winning the big one are millions to one against.
Many of the
players making these bets are well aware that they have only a very slim
chance of winning a serious prize but most are amazed when shown the mathematical
odds against such a win. My wife is well aware of the odds but each week,
she plays a set number of games in 'Gold Lotto', a local lottery type game
that is somewhat similar to Keno.
Bingo is another
classic example of a bad bet. Millions of people play it each week. A return
of 75 percent of the take to players is considered a high return in bingo.
The odds against getting a bingo and the low return to players make this
a classic bad bet.
The Big Wheel
or Wheel of Fortune gives the promoter an advantage of about 15 percent.
Fortunately most of us only ever play this at fairs and other charity events
so we know our money is going to a good cause.
The casino
has an advantage of at least 25 percent when we play keno. I know this
but whenever I have a meal at a casino I invariably play a few games during
the course of the meal.
When you place
a five number line bet in roulette and select the 00 to 3 bet, you have
chosen the worst possible bet in roulette. On this one the casino's advantage
is a bit over 7 percent.
Recall hearing
the stickman at the craps table constantly extolling you to bet 'Any craps'?
It is a sucker bet as are all the proposition bets.
Video Poker
and Slot machines are all bad bets unless you read the placards on the
machines. Because of the way in which prizes are calculated for winning
combinations, you must always bet the maximum number of coins or the casino
will always win. This is why it is better to play a lower denomination
machine and bet max than to bet the same amount as a single coin on a higher
denomination machine.
Today most
people think that the casinos have a very small advantage when you play
blackjack. Wrong, unless you have mastered at least a basic blackjack strategy.
The use of this strategy changes the house advantage from about 5 percent
to about 1 percent and this allows a skilled player to become a regular
winner.
These examples
of bad bets highlight our willingness to regularly make bad bets. Interestingly
many of the people making these bets do not consider themselves to be gamblers.
This is especially true for the buyers of lottery tickets and bingo players.
Cleaver marketing campaigns have popularized many of the bad bets to the
extent that many people place them with about as much forethought as we
give to purchasing our favorite breakfast cereal at the supermarket. This
is especially true for the lotteries.
For the lottery
ticket buyers, I believe that it is the allure of instant riches fueled
by the publicity given to the big winners collecting their checks in exchange
for what amounts to no more than the cost of a couple of cups of coffee
that induces so many to contribute to a prize pool from which the vast
majority will never benefit.
The rest of
us fall into three groups namely those who have made these bets on a regular
basis over an extended period of time without ever questioning the wisdom
of such bets, those of us who are overtaken by a combination of the euphoria
of the moment and alcohol and lastly those who thought it seemed like a
good bet at the time.
Of course there
are other more scientific explanations for this but the afore mentioned
explanations are much kinder to those of us who make bad bets.
May Lady Luck
smile upon you the next time you place your favorite bad bet.
Brian Osborne
is the webmaster at http://www.winnersrun.com
a website focusing on winning gambling strategies.
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