MTT Poker Win Frequency
By Joe Miyamoto
Multi Table
Tournaments (MTT) are currently very popular due in large part to the success
of televising the World Poker Tour Tournaments and the World Series of
Poker Tournaments. Thousands of players try their luck and skills daily
online and in brick and mortar tournaments. However, few players appear
to give much thought as to whether they should have even entered the tournament.
They seem to enter just to compete. It doesn't seem to matter how many
people have entered the contest. The lower the entry fee, the larger the
tournament field. It's not unusual for One, Two and Five dollar tournaments
to attract 1500 to 2500 entrants.
A player is
able to practice and compete for very little cost. But is that really true?
Just because the entry fee is small doesn't mean that the expense was worthwhile.
If you don't have the skills to get to the final table, and more importantly,
win then you would be better off buying a lottery ticket. Two dollars spent
weekly on a couple of lottery tickets might actually result in a lucky
win. Two dollars spent on a MTT will never result in enough lucky cards
to result in a win if you don't really have enough poker skills and you
aren't improving. You may not even make a final table.
So how do you
measure whether you should enter a Multi Table Tournament? To begin, you
should only enter a tournament if you intend to play to win. Don't enter
to practice. Always strive to improve your skills but only enter because
you want to win. Because the entry fee is low, a commonly seen strategy
is the maniac or suicidal aggressor. This type of player is allin early
and often. The strategy is to double or triple up quickly. If they lose,
they rationalize that that is the price to be paid in order to gain a quick
chip edge. But this strategy is only worthwhile if they would also employ
the same strategy when the entry fee is $10,000 instead of $2. If such
a player wouldn't go allin early in a high dollar entry tournament, such
as a WPT event, then why waste their time and money developing a strategy
that might only help once in a lucky while at a low dollar entry tournament.
To reiterate,
only enter a tournament because you want to win. Don't enter just to practice.
Equally important, enter with a strategy that you feel can be applied to
higher and higher entry fee tournaments. Why consign yourself to being
a $1-$20 tournament player. Play to win at this low level. But play to
win with a strategy that will also win at the $100-$1000 entry level.
And how do
you know that you are developing a winning strategy and set of skills?
You know because you've made the final table and you've won. But even this
isn't enough. You have to reach the final table and win in a profitable
manner.
In other words,
you need to know your MTT win frequency. Once you know this number then
you know what size tournaments you should enter. You begin to find this
number by first making an educated guess. Make an estimate of the number
of tournaments that you will need to enter before you win one. For example,
you guess that you'll win a tournament within your first 50 entries. Assuming
you are correct and you do win a tournament by your 50th entry then first
prize needs to pay more than 50 times the entry fee or you still lose money.
Say, for example,
you enter 50 ten dollar tournaments. At the end of 50 entries, you've spent
$500. For the typical tournament, first prize pays out 20 to 30% of the
total tournament entry fees. If the tournament you entered pays out 25%
to the winner and at least 200 people enter at $10 each then the total
prize pool is $2000. 25% of 2000 is $500. You've won. Congratulations!
You've just broken even and spent all of that tournament time to make nothing.
If each MTT averaged 4 hours to complete and on average you lasted about
2 hours per tournament then you've spent 100 hours to make nothing. In
other words, every tournament you enter must pay out more than the number
of tournament entries you estimated it will take in order to win. If you
win only once every 100 tournaments then you need to enter tournaments
that pay out better than 100 times the entry fee for first place. To enter
smaller paying tournaments ensures that you will earn less than the total
cost of your 100 entry fees.
But what about
the times that you finish in the money but don't win or reach the final
table? Consider those finishes as nice but they won't pay the bills. Typically,
60 to 70% of the total prize pool is paid out to the final table. That
means you need to make the final table to have any chance to make any decent
money. Any other finish lower than ninth or tenth will only pay out enough
to cover the cost of a few tournament entries. Finishing as high as 40th
earns you about .4 (4/10 of 1%) to .6% (6/10 of 1%) of the prize pool.
In dollar terms, this is about 3 to 7 times the entry fee. Just to break
even you need to finish no lower than 40th every 3 to 7 times you enter
a tournament.
In other words,
your in the money finishes will only help to subsidize your total cost
of entry fees until you finally win or consistently make the final table.
Thus, in order
to know which tournaments are worth your while to enter you need to track
the entry fee, the number of entrants, the number of places paid, your
finish and the amount that you won. Only then will the poker skills and
strategies you've worked to develop pay off for you.
To be a truly
successful Multi Table Tournament player you need to know your win freqency.
Only then will you know if the size of the tournament and it's payout structure
are worth your while to enter. Without this knowledge, you are reduced
to being an ostrich player; i.e. a player who plays with their head in
the sand, never knowing if their occasional wins or in the money finishes
have any chance of ever paying off. Without knowing your win frequency
you can never step up to the higher entry fee tournaments with any level
of confidence.
Be assured
that the top pros know their win frequency. Without this knowledge they
would quickly be bankrupt. To enter 100 WPT tournaments costs $1 million.
(100 x 10,000 = 1,000,000). If a pro enters and wins a WPT tournament once
every 100 times than he/she needs to win more than $1 million when he/she
does win in order to make any money. If, for example, a player finally
wins a tournament on his 100th try and the first prize payout is 35% of
a $2,000,000 purse then he would win $700,000. That's great, right? Not
really! Remember, this is the 100th try. He has spent $1 million dollars.
By not knowing his win frequency, this player is still $300,000 in the
hole and quickly going bankrupt. With luck, this player has made $300,000
from some in the money finishes in some of the other 99 tournaments that
were entered before. But this only brings him to break even.
In other words,
this player needs to improve his win frequency to 70 or less if he is going
to continue entering tournaments where the first prize payout is less than
his win frequency.
As mentioned,
winning a tournament that matches your win frequency will only result in
a break even. To truly succeed in tournament play you must enter tournaments
that have a first prize that exceeds your personal win frequency. A good
rule of thumb is to enter tournaments that pay a first prize of at least
double your win frequency. Thus, if you can win one of every 100 tournaments
you enter then the first prize purse should be at least 200 times the entry
fee. For example, a tournament entry fee of $100 should have a first prize
purse of $20,000 if you are able to win once out of every 100 entries.
One hundred entries would cost you $10,000 and you've won $20,000. You've
now made $10,000. If, as in the earlier example, you've spent an average
of 2 hours per tournament then you have 200 hours invested. This means
that you have made $50 per hour for your efforts ($10,000/200=$50).
Simple economics
guarantees that the amateur and the pro will slowly go bankrupt if their
win frequency is less than the payout for the tournaments that he/she wins.
So ignoring your win frequency number will only guarantee your eventual
exit from MTT poker. Don't let this happen to you. Take the time to track
your results and then you can choose the tournaments that payout at a rate
that will make you a true winner when you do win it. Never enter tournaments
that payout a first prize that is less than twice your MTT win frequency.
Without knowing this number you will never really make money in MTT play.
by Joseph Miyamoto,
additional articles at http://loveablerogues.com
Contact me at poker@loveablerogues.com
You may freely reprint this article if reprinted in full, including this
resource box. All rights reserved.
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